Everybody isn't that many - so far

Now everybody's podcasting. Isn't that right?

No it's not.

Not everybody, but still very few, know about podcasting and even less people are practicing it.

For those of you who missed it, Podcasting basically means you post audio files on your website so people can download them to their Ipod. The behavior has of course already been around for a while, but suddenly (a relative term) three things happened:

1. The behavior got a name
2. Software such as Itunes made the file transfer between the computer and your player convenient
3. Software to easily create downloadable audio files and distribute them in a RSS-like way (like a subscription service) became available

This means:

1. Industry people and the press got a phenomena to talk and write about.
2. People can listen to web based sound wherever they are
3. Similar to blogging the publishing got in the hands of those who have something to say, not only those who could afford it or were technically savvy.

After a post by Bruce deBoer at Synthesis we had an e-mail conversation stating that the hype is partly due to the name, partly due to the loyal crowd of Apple people who now have the stuff for doing it and also a will to confirm their community. And the hype is more "about" podcasting than the podcasting in itself. Bloggers, journalists and PR-people are all talking about it, but even in these groups not so many are actually doing it.

That's what coloured my mind, when I read this article by Robert MacMillan of Washington Post arguing that podcasting is a fad that's now peaking, and with an rather predictable future:

What hopefully will happen with podcasting is what's happening with blogs, Web sites, bands and writers -- millions exist and some survive. Hopefully, the ones that make it will do so because they're fresh and good, and the rest of us will try our best not to bore you.

I agree a lot with MacMillan and really like his own "law": The faster the rate of the innovation,  the more quickly the innovation grows stale.

But there is two fundamental errors in MacMellans arguments:

1. Podcasting is no fad. It may be in the future but today it's nothing but industry buzz
2. Even if it would be a fad, a trend, or a real common practice, we don't really know if it will go the same way as other technologies, because the characteristics aren't the same as for blogging, web surfing or any other commonly known Internet behavior.

The relative advantage of Podcasting goes down to the easy transfer from the computer to the Ipod. Because that's what makes the whole difference - the ability to consume this kind of information on previously impossible or inconvenient occasions. While driving your car, training in the gym, doing typical blue collar tasks, or doing garderning at home.

If people then will listen to Rush Limbaugh, The Gilmor Gang or bedroom couples  is something for the future to decide. But if I was an executive on Sirius Satelite Radio I would certainly follow the development carefully. Because, I am sure we have some interesting Howard Sterns out there.